Freight
Transport Trends & Forecasts to 2015
March 2000. Forecast
update is available on request.
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
The
objective of this forecast study is to develop estimates of 1999 modal[1]
freight traffic and produce traffic forecasts for the years 2000 to 2010
inclusive, with long-term outlooks for the year 2015. The approach used
visualizes the Canadian transportation system as a complex network of
transportation nodes, routes and modes competing for commodities flowing
within Canada and between various North American and overseas supply and
demand centres. The amount/size and direction of commodities flowing through
this network are influenced by a multitude of interrelated economic,
infrastructure/technological, political, institutional and environmental
factors at domestic and global levels. By identifying the supply and demand
centre(s) for each commodity/group and then determining the impact of these
factors on its supply, demand, trade and modal choice, the accuracy of the
forecast is greatly enhanced
Total modal freight traffic in
1999 is estimated at 863 Mt, 2.0% above the 846 Mt in 1998. During the
1999-2015 forecast period total freight traffic is expected to increase at an
average annual rate of 1.3% to 1,050 Mt in 2015.
The
marine traffic in 1999 is estimated at 330 Mt, 0.7% above the 328 Mt in 1998.
During the 1999-2015 forecast period total marine freight traffic flows are
expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.0% to 389 Mt in 2015.
The
rail traffic in 1999 is estimated at 289 Mt, 1.5% higher than the 285 Mt in
1998. During the 1999-2015 forecast period total rail freight traffic flows are
expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.1% to 341 Mt in 2015.
The
trucking traffic
in 1999 is estimated at 244 Mt, 4.4% above the 234 Mt in 1998. During the
1999-2015 forecast period total trucking freight traffic flows are expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 1.9% to 320 Mt in 2015.
In
terms of share of total freight traffic, the trucking sector is expected to
increase from 27.6% in 1998 to 30.5% in year 2015. Shares of the overall
freight traffic by marine
and rail should decline from 38.7% and 33.6% in 1998 to 37.0% and 32.5%
respectively by the year 2015.
FREIGHT
TRAFFIC BY MODE: ACTUAL & FORECAST
|
|
Mt
|
APC
|
%
Share
|
|
|
|
Marine
|
Rail
|
Trucking
|
Modal
|
Marine
|
Rail
|
Trucking
|
Modal
|
Marine
|
Rail
|
Trucking
|
Modal
|
|
1997
|
294.6
|
258.4
|
194.3
|
747
|
|
|
|
|
39.4
|
34.6
|
26.0
|
100.0
|
|
1988
|
320.0
|
264.7
|
208.4
|
793
|
8.6
|
2.5
|
7.3
|
6.1
|
40.3
|
33.4
|
26.3
|
100.0
|
|
1989
|
301.3
|
249.5
|
189.6
|
740
|
-5.8
|
-5.7
|
-9.0
|
-6.6
|
40.7
|
33.7
|
25.6
|
100.0
|
|
1990
|
292.7
|
242.3
|
174.2
|
709
|
-2.8
|
-2.9
|
-8.1
|
-4.2
|
41.3
|
34.2
|
24.6
|
100.0
|
|
1991
|
292.0
|
247.4
|
150.6
|
690
|
-0.2
|
2.1
|
-13.6
|
-2.7
|
42.3
|
35.9
|
21.8
|
100.0
|
|
1992
|
275.4
|
241.6
|
149.5
|
667
|
-5.7
|
-2.3
|
-0.7
|
-3.4
|
41.3
|
36.2
|
22.4
|
100.0
|
|
1993
|
274.1
|
240.7
|
173.4
|
688
|
-0.5
|
-0.4
|
16.0
|
3.3
|
39.8
|
35.0
|
25.2
|
100.0
|
|
1994
|
299.2
|
273.2
|
195.7
|
768
|
9.2
|
13.5
|
12.9
|
11.6
|
39.0
|
35.6
|
25.5
|
100.0
|
|
1995
|
310.5
|
275.2
|
210.9
|
797
|
3.7
|
0.7
|
7.8
|
3.7
|
39.0
|
34.5
|
26.5
|
100.0
|
|
1996
|
308.9
|
275.0
|
229.0
|
813
|
-0.5
|
-0.1
|
8.5
|
2.0
|
38.0
|
33.8
|
28.2
|
100.0
|
|
1997
|
329.4
|
293.0
|
223.3
|
846
|
6.6
|
6.5
|
-2.5
|
4.0
|
38.9
|
34.6
|
26.4
|
100.0
|
|
1998
|
327.8
|
284.8
|
233.9
|
846
|
-0.5
|
-2.8
|
4.8
|
0.1
|
38.7
|
33.6
|
27.6
|
100.0
|
|
1999
|
330.1
|
289.0
|
244.1
|
863
|
0.7
|
1.5
|
4.4
|
2.0
|
38.2
|
33.5
|
28.3
|
100.0
|
|
2000
|
336.0
|
293.8
|
249.4
|
879
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
2.2
|
1.8
|
38.2
|
33.4
|
28.4
|
100.0
|
|
2001
|
338.5
|
298.0
|
252.3
|
889
|
0.7
|
1.4
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
38.1
|
33.5
|
28.4
|
100.0
|
|
2002
|
342.3
|
299.3
|
256.4
|
898
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
1.7
|
1.0
|
38.1
|
33.3
|
28.6
|
100.0
|
|
2003
|
345.2
|
302.0
|
261.0
|
908
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
1.8
|
1.1
|
38.0
|
33.2
|
28.7
|
100.0
|
|
2004
|
348.7
|
305.5
|
265.2
|
919
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
37.9
|
33.2
|
28.9
|
100.0
|
|
2005
|
352.6
|
308.1
|
269.8
|
930
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
37.9
|
33.1
|
29.0
|
100.0
|
|
2006
|
356.6
|
311.0
|
274.2
|
942
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
37.9
|
33.0
|
29.1
|
100.0
|
|
2007
|
358.8
|
314.3
|
278.8
|
952
|
0.6
|
1.1
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
37.7
|
33.0
|
29.3
|
100.0
|
|
2008
|
361.6
|
317.4
|
283.5
|
963
|
0.8
|
1.1
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
37.6
|
33.0
|
29.4
|
100.0
|
|
2009
|
364.6
|
320.5
|
288.3
|
973
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
37.5
|
32.9
|
29.6
|
100.0
|
|
2010
|
368.8
|
323.9
|
293.4
|
986
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
37.4
|
32.8
|
29.8
|
100.0
|
|
2015
|
388.6
|
341.3
|
319.8
|
1,050
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
37.0
|
32.5
|
30.5
|
100.0
|
|
AAPC
|
1999-2015
|
|
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
1.9
|
1.3
|
|
|
|
|
The following chart and tables show that forest
products, petroleum products, coal, iron ore, and grains and all other
commodities group are the most important components of the Canadian freight
traffic and will remain so until 2015.
FREIGHT
TRAFFIC BY COMMODITY GROUP & MODE
ACTUAL
& FORECAST
|
Commodity GP
|
Marine
|
Rail
|
Trucking
|
Modal
|
|
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
|
Alumina & Bauxite
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
|
Animal & Food Prod.
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
9
|
9
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
36
|
39
|
42
|
43
|
44
|
51
|
55
|
|
Chemical Prod.
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
25
|
26
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
40
|
41
|
42
|
47
|
49
|
|
Coal
|
53
|
53
|
53
|
54
|
57
|
40
|
39
|
39
|
41
|
42
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
93
|
93
|
93
|
97
|
100
|
|
Construction Mater.
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
34
|
35
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
51
|
52
|
53
|
59
|
62
|
|
Containerized
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
32
|
40
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
28
|
34
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
39
|
41
|
42
|
61
|
74
|
|
Fertilizer Mater.
|
11
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
26
|
27
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
34
|
36
|
36
|
38
|
40
|
|
Forest Prod.
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
28
|
31
|
42
|
43
|
44
|
49
|
51
|
53
|
56
|
58
|
68
|
75
|
119
|
124
|
126
|
145
|
156
|
|
Grains
|
31
|
31
|
33
|
33
|
34
|
31
|
31
|
33
|
33
|
34
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
67
|
68
|
72
|
73
|
74
|
|
Iron Ore
|
45
|
45
|
47
|
47
|
48
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
40
|
41
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
84
|
84
|
86
|
88
|
89
|
|
Manufactured Prod.
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
19
|
21
|
|
Non-Ferrous Metals
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
|
Petroleum Prod.
|
66
|
67
|
68
|
77
|
79
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
30
|
32
|
103
|
104
|
106
|
121
|
126
|
|
Salt
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
|
Steel
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
18
|
21
|
21
|
25
|
27
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
38
|
41
|
|
TOFC
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Other Commodities
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
65
|
66
|
68
|
81
|
89
|
92
|
93
|
94
|
110
|
119
|
|
Total Freight Traffic
|
328
|
330
|
336
|
369
|
389
|
285
|
289
|
294
|
324
|
341
|
234
|
244
|
249
|
293
|
320
|
846
|
863
|
879
|
986
|
1,050
|
|
Source:
TAF Consultants
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COMMODITY GROUP
SHARE OF TRAFFIC BY MODE:
ACTUAL & FORECAST
(Percentage)
|
Commodity GP
|
Marine
|
Rail
|
Trucking
|
Modal
|
|
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2010
|
2015
|
|
Alumina & Bauxite
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
|
Animal & Food Prod.
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
12.9
|
12.8
|
12.7
|
12.4
|
12.2
|
4.9
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
|
Chemical Prod.
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
7.7
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
7.7
|
4.8
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
4.9
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
|
Coal
|
16.2
|
16.0
|
15.9
|
14.7
|
14.6
|
13.9
|
13.4
|
13.2
|
12.8
|
12.4
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
11.0
|
10.7
|
10.6
|
9.8
|
9.5
|
|
Construction Mater.
|
8.9
|
9.0
|
9.0
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
3.6
|
3.6
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.4
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
4.9
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
6.0
|
6.1
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
5.9
|
|
Containerized
|
6.3
|
6.5
|
6.6
|
8.8
|
10.3
|
6.3
|
6.6
|
6.7
|
8.8
|
10.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
4.6
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
6.2
|
7.1
|
|
Fertilizer Mater.
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
7.7
|
7.9
|
7.9
|
8.0
|
7.9
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
|
Forest Prod.
|
7.4
|
7.6
|
7.4
|
7.6
|
7.9
|
14.8
|
15.0
|
14.8
|
15.0
|
14.9
|
22.6
|
22.9
|
23.2
|
23.3
|
23.4
|
14.1
|
14.4
|
14.4
|
14.7
|
14.9
|
|
Grains
|
9.4
|
9.4
|
9.8
|
9.1
|
8.7
|
10.8
|
10.7
|
11.3
|
10.2
|
9.8
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
7.9
|
7.8
|
8.2
|
7.4
|
7.1
|
|
Iron Ore
|
13.9
|
13.7
|
13.9
|
12.9
|
12.4
|
13.7
|
13.3
|
13.4
|
12.4
|
11.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
10.0
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
8.9
|
8.4
|
|
Manufactured Prod.
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
|
Non-Ferrous Metals
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
|
Petroleum Prod.
|
20.2
|
20.3
|
20.3
|
20.9
|
20.3
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
10.5
|
10.3
|
10.2
|
10.1
|
10.0
|
12.2
|
12.1
|
12.1
|
12.3
|
12.0
|
|
Salt
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
|
Steel
|
1.7
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
7.8
|
8.4
|
8.3
|
8.4
|
8.6
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
3.7
|
3.8
|
3.9
|
|
TOFC
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
Other Commodities
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
3.3
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.3
|
5.3
|
5.4
|
27.8
|
27.1
|
27.1
|
27.5
|
27.9
|
10.9
|
10.8
|
10.7
|
11.1
|
11.4
|
|
Total Freight Traffic
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Source:
TAF Consultants
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
