Hazem Ghonima Pojects

MAJOR PROJECTS MANAGED AND IMPLEMENTED BY HAZEM GHONIMA

Global Economic Crisis Impact on the Maritime Freight Trade Flows. Work in progress of this comprehensive transportation forecast study to assesses the impact of the Global economic crisis on the current and future development of the world maritime freight trade flows including containerized and non-containerized cargo. The study also assess the impact of the economic crisis on the traffic of three major World canals - The Suez Canal, the Panama Canal and the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence Seaway System.

National Commodity Flow, Trade and Traffic Forecast, March, 2009. In association with Global Insight for Transport Canada. The objective of this major project is to 1) develop comprehensive Canadian national forecasts of domestic, international and in-transit commodity flows and trade, and 2) selected forecasts of modal (marine, rail, trucking and air) and inter-modal traffic, which will be used as a foundation for the analytical work that will be necessary to implement Canada's National Policy Framework for strategic Gateways and Trade Corridors,

China & India Containerized Cargo Flows through the Suez Canal to North America’s Atlantic Ports, Present and Future Potential, March, 2008. A CILTNA study for Transport Canada. The study assessed the current and future potential trade growth of containerized cargo flows from China and India through the Suez Canal to North America’s (Canada & the U.S.) Atlantic Coast, particularly the Port of Halifax.

Commodity Flows Information System (COMFIS©): Development of the Commodity Flow Information System (COMFIS©) and updates from 1996 to 2008). COMFIS© is a comprehensive Commodity Flows Information System and market research tool vital for effective trade and transportation system analysis. It integrates Canadian, U.S. and International commodity and containerized cargo flows for domestic and global business development and forecasting. It is an interactive-dynamic framework of information related to the supply, demand, trade, modal (marine, rail & for-hire trucking) transportation by origin, destination and market of commodities and containerized cargo moving within Canada and the U.S., and from Canadian and U.S. Ports to Overseas Ports through alternative outlets, routes and modes. COMFIS© versions were installed at the St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation (SLSMC), Industry Canada, the Canadian Transportation Agency (CTA), the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO). COMFIS’ approach and technology were also used in the design and development of Transport Canada’s Commodity Flows Databases. Moreover, outputs from COMFIS© were also used by several other North American public and private organizations including the U.S. Dept. of the Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation (SLSDC), HUNDAI Merchant Marine Co., Ministry of Transportation (Québec), Hickling Corporation, Booz*Allen & Hamilton Inc., Thunder Bay Harbour Commission, Canada Ports Corporation, Prince Rupert Port Corporation. and the Seaway Review.

Transportation Situation and Outlook Report, for the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, October, 2007. The study forecasts Canadian surface freight traffic flows transported by the commercial marine, rail and trucking modes of transport up to the year 2025.

Economic aspects of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway Consolidated Study for Transport Canada, December, 2006. This aspect of the study assess the economic conditions that affect shipping on the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway GLSLS. It reviews the existing cargo traffic within the system and the market forces that influence traffic patterns. It provides a quantitative assessment of tonnages shipped within the system and forecast future trends in the existing cargo trades. The study examines the factors affecting shippers when choosing between marine and alternative transport modes; and presents an evaluation of the cost benefits afforded by the Seaway relative to other available transportation.

Marine aspects of Southern Ontario Gateway Council Strategic Plan study, for the Southern Ontario Gateway Council (SOGC), the, April, 2006. This report deals with market assessment the marine components of the Southern Ontario Gateway Council (SOGC) Strategic Plan study. More specifically this report covers the Welland Canal section of the St. Lawrence Seaway and the ports of Hamilton, Toronto, Oshawa and Nanticoke. Nevertheless in order to undertake a more efficient market assessment, the report eview ed the Great Lake-St Lawrence Seaway System characteristics before dealing with the marine components of the SOG.

International Container Movements and Transshipments for Major Canadian Ports: Development of forecasts to the year 2020 and updates (2003, 2004 and 2005) for the movement of international containerized traffic for major Canadian ports. This study assessed the future competitiveness of the Ports of Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax for the movement of international containerized TEU traffic. The latest report (August 2005) offers an expanded update and comprehensive in-depth analysis of traffic flows from China and other significant Asia-Pacific trade regions in Asia through Canada’s largest ports. The refined focus on China and Asia-Pacific markets comes in light of rapidly developing containerized trade between Canada and North America and this region. This study update also includes two additional ports, Fraser River and Prince Rupert. Marine policy, Transport Canada.

Modal Commodity Flow Forecasts and Trade Flows to Selected Canada-US Border Crossing Points: A series of comprehensive forecast studies and updates (1996, 1998, 2000 and 2004 ) to develop transport Canada’s marine, rail and for-hire trucking commodity flow forecasts to the 2020, and the development of forecasts of expected cross-border rail and for-hire trucking trade flows at selected Canada-U.S. border-crossing points. Forecasts of the U.S. component of the St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic were also provided. The detailed historical and forecast traffic data relevant to commodity/groups and modes, generated from this forecast study, were incorporated in ACA’s Commodity Flows Database (CFDB). Economic Analysis, Transport Canada.

Future Competitiveness of the St. Lawrence Seaway System: Development of the Seaway Traffic Forecasts and updates (1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004) on the future (2020) competitiveness of the St. Lawrence Seaway System vis a vis alternative modes and routes. Marine Policy, Transport Canada.

Seaway Competitiveness Versus the Mississippi & Rail Options for the Movements of Grains: This study assess the competitiveness of the St. Lawrence Seaway versus the Mississippi-Gulf route and the Rail Options for the movement of grains. More specifically the study dealt with five alternative routes/modes for the exports of Canadian and U.S. Grains to final destination. Policy Group, Transport Canada, May 2002.

Commodity Flows DataBase (CFDB): A comprehensive and user-friendly modal commodity flows and regional analysis tool. It is an interactive-dynamic framework of information related to the flows of 45 selected commodities/groups moving to and from up to 26 regions (Canadian, U.S. and Overseas) via the marine, rail and trucking modes. The system incorporates historical time series (1984-1997) and forecast (1998-2010) data for commodity flows via the marine, rail and trucking modes. Information can be obtained for a specific time period by mode, commodity, commodity group, shipping type, trade type, sector, region (O/D) and major region (O/D). In addition, the system incorporates historical and forecast data for the economic and supply/demand variables used in the development of ACA’s modal freight flow forecasts. Developed and delivered to Transport Canada, Economic Analysis Directorate (ACA), April 1999.

Freight Transport Trends and Forecasts to 2010 (1997-2005 & 2010): The study analyzed trends in marine, rail and truck traffic and provided short to medium term commodity and traffic flow forecasts for the 1997-2005 period, with long-term forecasts for the year 2010. Forecasts of the U.S. component of the St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic were also provided. Each commodity was analyzed separately, and the applied forecasting methodology depended on the characteristic of the commodity under study. The detailed historical and forecast traffic data relevant to commodity/groups and modes, generated from this forecast study, were incorporated in ACA’s Commodity Flow Database (CFD). Prepared for the Economic Analysis Directorate (ACA), Transport Canada, April 1998.

Canadian Breakbulk Cargo Shipments to the Far East & the Middle East: A report prepared for HUNDAI Merchant Marine Co., LTD, March 1998: An analysis of Breakbulk cargo shipments from Canadian Eastern Ports to the Far Eastern & the Middle Eastern market during the 1992-1996 period.

Freight Transportation Demand, Looking Ahead: Medium-Term Market Outlook Scenarios For The Canadian Freight Transportation Sector: This study was prepared for the Transportation Industries Branch of Industry Canada by TAF Consultants and the Research and Traffic Group, April 1997. The main objectives of this study were to estimate the demand for Canadian freight transportation services (FTS), especially North American demand, from the present through to the year 2005, by modes, principal regions and customer industries, and to develop alternative outlook scenarios that might occur depending on changes to underlying baseline assumptions about market forces and technological developments. In addition, the study articulated about the cause and effect relationships that exist among technology/market "drivers" in the FTS sector and possible outcomes, and about the subsequent direct impacts on transportation equipment and infrastructure requirements resulting from the various outlook scenarios.

Commodity Flow Database (CFD): This project expanded and upgraded the Commodity Flow Database (CFDB), which was initially developed for Transport Canada within ACAC’s Freight Transport Trends and Forecasts to 2010 project, to reflect current and future data requirements, March 1997. The CFD is a comprehensive system housing historical and forecast marine, rail and trucking commodity flows data. The expanded system is composed of eight (8) major modules, each module comprise of sub-modules that represent elements and variables related to the commodity flows.

Economic Impact Study of Major Marine Initiatives: This study was prepared for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans by Hickling Corporation in association with Booz*Allen & Hamilton Inc. and other Consultants including Hazem Ghonima, December 1996. The objectives were to assess the global impacts of the federal marine reform initiatives and evaluate the effects of the fees for marine navigation and icebreaking services. TAF Consultants’ Commodity Flows Information System (COMFIS) was used extensively to analyse the structure of commodities flowing in and out of Canadian ports to domestic and world destinations, and to apply various assumptions in order to develop a database that identify the critical traffic flows. Subsequently the latter was used with the output of other project tasks to calculated the cost of each of the seven initiatives as well as the marine shipping cost, the inland shipping cost and the value of shipments for each flow.

Freight Transport Trends and Forecasts to 2010 (1996-2002, 2005 & 2010): This comprehensive freight forecast project was prepared for the Statistics and Forecasts Branch (ACAC), Economic Analysis, Transport Canada by TAF Consultants, April 1996. The study analyzed trends in marine, rail and truck traffic and provided short to medium term commodity and traffic flow forecasts for the 1996-2002 period, with long-term outlooks for the years 2005 and 2010. Commodity and traffic estimates for 1995 were also provided. Each commodity was analyzed separately, and the applied forecasting methodology depended on the characteristic of the commodity under study. A Commodity Flow Database (CFDB) was also developed consisting of historical and forecast origin/destination traffic data relevant to the commodity/commodity groups flows and marine, rail and truck traffic.

Provision of Forecasts for U.S. Component of The St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic: 1995 & 1996-2002 & 2005: A forecast report prepared for Transport Canada, Economic Analysis. The report provides forecasts of the U.S. component of the St. Lawrence Seaway traffic during the 1996-2002 period as well as an estimate for 1995. A long-term outlook for the year 2005 is also provided, November 1995.

Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic Forecast: 1995-2004: A Commodity Flow Forecast Report: Customized subscription report. It provides forecasts for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway traffic for the 1995-2004 period. The report includes forecasts for U.S. and Canadian grains, iron ore, coal, other bulk cargo and general cargo that move through the Great Lakes, the Welland Canal and the Montreal - Lake Ontario section and alternative competitive routes & modes, May 1995.

Seaway Traffic Forecast: 1994-2003: A Commodity Flow Forecast Report: - A report prepared for the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. This report provides forecasts for the St. Lawrence Seaway traffic and toll revenues for the 1994-2003 period. The report includes forecasts for U.S. and Canadian grains, iron ore, coal, other bulk cargo and general cargo that move through the Montreal - Lake Ontario section, the Welland Canal and alternative competitive routes & modes. In addition, the report includes forecasts for vessel transits (loaded and in ballast) and the gross registered tonnage (GRT) related to the revenues and traffic forecast, April 1994.

Provision of Forecasts for U.S. Component of The St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic: 1993-1998 & 2005: A forecast report prepared for Transport Canada, Economic Analysis, August 1993.

Seaway Traffic Forecast: 1993-2002: A Commodity Flow Forecast Report: - A report prepared for the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. This report provides forecasts for the St. Lawrence Seaway traffic and toll revenues for the 1993-2002 period. The report includes forecasts for U.S. and Canadian grains, iron ore, coal, other bulk cargo and general cargo that move through the Montreal - Lake Ontario section, the Welland Canal and alternative competitive routes & modes. In addition, the report includes forecasts for vessel transits (loaded and in ballast) and the gross registered tonnage (GRT) related to the revenues and traffic forecast, April 1993.

Overview of The Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic & Emerging Trend, and The Great Lakes - Seaway Policy Analysis Information System (GLS-PAIS): This report was prepared and developed respectively for Transport Canada, Marine Policy and Programs and Economic Analysis. This report updates and expands the scope of earlier study that was undertaken in 1990. It also develops a user-friendly computer system the (GLS-PAIS) that quickly provides comprehensive information on issues related to the Great Lakes - Seaway transportation system in an interactive and dynamic environment required for efficient policy analysis, 1992.

Canadian Grain Shipments, 1989-90 to 1991-92: A report prepared for Thunder Bay Harbour Commission, 1992. - A detailed statistical analysis of Canadian grain shipments from primary, interior and process elevators to domestic and export end markets by grain type, modes, routes and seaboard outlets.

Canadian Grain Exports to North Africa & the Middle East: A report prepared for Thunder Bay Harbour Commission, 1992. - An analysis of Canadian grain exports by seaboard outlets to the North African & Middle Eastern market during the 1978-1991 period.

Seaway Traffic Forecast: 1992-2001: A Commodity Flow Forecast Report: - A report prepared for the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. This report provides forecasts for the St. Lawrence Seaway traffic and toll revenues for the 1992-2001 period. The report includes forecasts for U.S. and Canadian grains, iron ore, coal, other bulk cargo and general cargo that move through the Montreal - Lake Ontario section, the Welland Canal and alternative competitive routes & modes. In addition, the report includes forecasts for vessel transits (loaded and in ballast) and the gross registered tonnage (GRT) related to the revenues and traffic forecast, April 1992.

Forecast of U.S. Component of The St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic: 1992-1996: A forecast report prepared for Transport Canada, Economic Analysis, 1991.

Forecast of U.S. Component of The St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic: 1991-1995: A forecast report prepared for Transport Canada, Economic Analysis, 1990.

Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway System Commercial Attractiveness and Priority for Policy Development: This study was prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation, Marine Office by: Richard Lake, David Hackston, Hazem Ghonima, Ross Jacobs and Douglas Masson. In this report modal costs and competitiveness were assessed, and administrative, financial and management issues affecting the system were explored, 1990.

Overview of the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway Traffic & Emerging Trend: A Study reports prepared for Transport Canada, Marine Policy and Programs and Economic Analysis. This report provides an overview of commodity flows through the Seaway as well as identifies the factors influencing traffic behaviour and emerging trends. The aim was to develop a basic framework of information related to cargo movements through the Seaway that could be used in other studies dealing with various aspects of the waterway, 1990.

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Revised: June 07, 2009